Snow

Numerical weather prediction guidance has become largely consistent across successive model cycles, with minimal deviation in the overall synoptic pattern governing the ongoing winter storm. Global models—including the ECMWF, GFS, UKMET, ICON, and GDPS—continue to show strong agreement regarding the storm’s track, timing, and thermodynamic structure, which has led to increased forecast confidence compared to earlier periods of higher variability.

As a result of this improved confidence and strengthening signal for impactful winter weather, the National Weather Service has upgraded portions of the region to a Winter Storm Warning. This upgrade reflects high confidence in the occurrence of significant winter impacts, including accumulating snowfall, reduced visibilities, and hazardous travel conditions. The warning indicates that confidence thresholds have been met regarding both the likelihood and severity of the event.

From a meteorological standpoint, the storm is characterized by a well-defined surface low tracking through the mid-Mississippi Valley, supported by strong mid-level forcing, upper-level divergence, and a favorable jet-streak configuration. Cold air entrenched across the region, combined with a deep moisture plume originating from the Gulf of Mexico, supports efficient snow growth and the potential for sustained periods of moderate to heavy snowfall. The presence of a deformation band and mesoscale forcing may further enhance localized snowfall rates.

While the overall forecast scenario is now well established, some uncertainty remains with respect to mesoscale details, including band placement and localized snowfall maxima. Nevertheless, confidence is high that the region will experience impactful winter weather. Residents and interests within the warning area should prepare for deteriorating travel conditions and continue to monitor official National Weather Service updates as the event unfolds.