Snow

Numerical weather prediction guidance is now in relative agreement over a 48-hour period that the winter storm expected to impact the St. Louis region will follow a northerly track relative to earlier solutions, with the core of the system tracking north of Arkansas and Oklahoma and into Missouri and Illinois. This placement keeps the St. Louis metropolitan area within the favored corridor for winter weather impacts, rather than displacing the storm well north of the region.

Recent model consistency has increased confidence in the synoptic evolution of the system, particularly with respect to the track of the surface low, the orientation of the mid-level trough, and the positioning of the deformation zone. While minor latitudinal adjustments remain possible, the current consensus supports a storm track sufficient to maintain cold-sector precipitation across the St. Louis area, with sharp snowfall gradients still possible on the southern edge of the system.

In response to these trends, the National Weather Service has updated the Winter Storm Watch to include the potential for higher snowfall accumulations, including the possibility of totals reaching or exceeding 8 inches in parts of the watch area. This upgrade reflects stronger large-scale forcing, improved phasing of upper-level energy, and thermal profiles supportive of predominantly snow. If the current forecast scenario verifies, impacts could include significant snowfall rates, reduced visibilities, and hazardous travel conditions across much of the region. Continued forecast refinements are expected as the event approaches and mesoscale details become clearer.